Nigeria Trade & FX Landscape – August 2026 Snapshot

**ABUJA —** Tuesday, 25 August 2026 | Source Reporters Research Desk | [RESEARCH]

## Summary Nigeria’s external accounts showed mixed but stabilizing trends in July–August 2026. The naira traded at **1,347.44 NGN/USD** on the NFEM on 25 August 2026, up 0.03% from the prior session and appreciating 1.27% over the past month and 12.35% year‑on‑year. Foreign‑exchange reserves edged up to **$51.92 billion** in July 2026. Exports rose to **₦8.88 billion** in March 2026 (vs ₦5.94 billion in February), driven by oil and natural gas (91% of total). Import bills climbed to **₦4.74 billion** in March 2026. Crude‑oil production slipped to **1,505 BBL/D/1K** in July 2026, down from 1,555 BBL/D/1K in June. Inflation moderated to **15.43%** year‑on‑change in July 2026 (down from 15.91% in June), with food inflation accelerating to 20.31%. The CBN left its monetary policy rate at **26.50%** at its July meeting. Overall, the data suggest a fragile but mildly improving external position, supported by naira stability and rising export volumes, yet downside risks remain from production declines and elevated food prices.

## Findings 1. **FX rate (verified)** – The NFEM/official naira‑dollar rate stood at **1,347.44 NGN per USD** on 25 August 2026, according to Trading Economics’ real‑time data feed. This represents a marginal 0.03% gain on the day and a 1.27% monthly strengthening. The all‑time high of 1,717.50 NGN/USD was recorded in November 2024; the current level is 21.6% below that peak. *Source: Trading Economics, accessed 25 Aug 2026; data last updated 25 Aug 2026.*

2. **Foreign‑exchange reserves (verified)** – CBN foreign‑exchange reserves rose to **$51.92 billion** in July 2026 from $51.29 billion in June 2026. *Source: CBN Monthly Economic Report, July 2026; cited in Trading Economics, accessed 25 Aug 2026.*

3. **Crude‑oil production (verified)** – Nigeria’s crude‑oil output fell to **1,505 BBL/D/1K** in July 2026, down 3.4% month‑on‑month from 1,555 BBL/D/1K in June 2026. *Source: Trading Economics citing OPEC, accessed 25 Aug 2026.*

4. **Exports (verified)** – Total exports rose to **₦8,879,063.63 million** in March 2026, up 49.6% from February 2026 (₦5,940,717.25 million). Oil and natural‑gas exports accounted for **91%** of total export value. *Source: Trading Economics citing NBS, accessed 25 Aug 2026.*

5. **Imports (verified)** – Import bills increased to **₦4,736,895.02 million** in March 2026 from ₦4,509,519.77 million in February 2026. *Source: Trading Economics citing NBS, accessed 25 Aug 2026.*

6. **Inflation (verified)** – Nigeria’s annual inflation rate eased to **15.43%** year‑on‑change in July 2026, down from 15.91% in June. Food inflation accelerated to **20.31%** (up from 17.52% in June). Core inflation moderated to **14.97%**, the lowest since May 2022. *Source: Trading Economics citing NBS, accessed 25 Aug 2026.*

7. **Monetary policy (verified)** – The CBN’s Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) was held at **26.50%** at the 21 July 2026 meeting, citing "persistent inflationary risks amid heightened uncertainty stemming from renewed hostilities in the Middle East." *Source: Trading Economics citing CBN statement, accessed 25 Aug 2026.*

8. **FX confidence tag** – The NFEM rate of 1,347.44 NGN/USD is **Verified** as it is drawn from a live, market‑reported data feed cross‑checked against CBN’s published rates. *Confidence: Verified.*

9. **Production outlook (estimated)** – Trading Economics projects Nigeria’s crude‑oil production to rebound to **1,570 BBL/D/1K** by end‑Q4 2026. These projections are based on model estimates; actual outturn may vary depending on security conditions. *Confidence: Estimated.*

10. **Food‑price risk (unverified)** – Food inflation at 20.31% is the highest component of the CPI basket (52% weight). This figure is **flagged as Unverified** with respect to medium‑term trajectory, as it relies on NBS data with a two‑month publication lag and may not fully capture market‑price dynamics. *Confidence: Unverified (trajectory risk).*

## Methodology All figures were retrieved from publicly available, reputable sources—primarily Trading Economics (which aggregates CBN, NBS, and OPEC data), the CBN’s monthly reports, and the NBS’s statistical releases. Where possible, data were cross‑checked across two independent sources. The date range refers to the most recent observations available as of 25 August 2026. The USD/NGN spot rate was taken directly from Trading Economics’ real‑time page, which sources NFEM/interbank quotes from the CBN’s daily FX auction and is therefore treated as verified for the publication date. Each material claim is tagged as Verified (live or officially published dataset with no significant lag or ambiguity), Estimated (model‑based forward projection), or Unverified (data with notable methodological caveats or lag).

## Confidence Summary | Claim | Confidence Tag | |-------|----------------| | NFEM USD/NGN rate 1,347.44 (25 Aug 2026) | Verified | | FX reserves $51.92 bn (July 2026) | Verified | | Crude‑oil production 1,505 BBL/D/1K (July 2026) | Verified | | Non‑oil exports share 91% of total export value (Mar 2026) | Verified | | Import bill ₦4.74 bn (Mar 2026) | Verified | | Inflation 15.43% y/y (July 2026) | Verified | | Food inflation 20.31% y/y (July 2026) | Verified (level), Unverified (medium‑term trajectory) | | MPR held at 26.50% (July 2026 meeting) | Verified | | Production rebound estimate 1,570 BBL/D/1K (end‑Q4 2026) | Estimated | | Core inflation 14.97% (July 2026) | Verified |

## Corrections & Flags - The food‑inflation trajectory (20.31% y/y) is flagged as **Unverified** for medium‑term direction due to the NBS publication lag and potential seasonal factors not captured in the latest release. Readers should monitor the next NBS CPI release (expected September 2026) for confirmation. - All FX‑related figures are based on the NFEM/official market rate; parallel‑market (black‑market) rates may differ and are not covered in this report. - Production figures are subject to revision by the CBN and OPEC; the July 2026 estimate of 1,505 BBL/D/1K may be adjusted in subsequent monthly publications. - Import and export values are reported in nominal NGN terms; real‑terms adjustments (inflation‑deflated) are not applied herein. - This research reflects sourced analysis as of the publication date (25 August 2026). Source Reporters will update the report if any of the verified figures are revised by the originating agencies.