Six months into the Iran-US war, analysts see attrition not victory

Six months after surprise Israeli and US strikes on Iran on February 28, the war has settled into a grinding stalemate with no Iranian regime collapse in sight and Gulf economies bracing for prolonged uncertainty, according to analysts cited by Al Jazeera (Al Jazeera).

Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, told Al Jazeera that "the war has just accelerated trends, but hasn't really started anything that wasn't already under way. The Gulf countries were already diversifying their economies. Many were already looking at broadening their defence partnerships beyond existing US security guarantees, as well as increasing their own defence capability" (Al Jazeera).

HA Hellyer of the Royal United Services Institute was blunt about regime-change hopes. "There is no chance of the government in Tehran falling in the next six months," he told Al Jazeera. "If everything were to theoretically stay the same … with just increased economic pressure, that could eventually cause a ripple effect that could lead to state collapse in Iran. But we're talking years, not months, and everything is not likely to stay the same" (Al Jazeera).

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has hammered shipping, with Al Jazeera reporting a 95% drop in pre-war traffic through the chokepoint following Iranian attacks on shipping and a US blockade on Iranian ports. Oil-dependent Gulf economies are still absorbing supply shocks, Al Jazeera reported, and the effective shutdown has hindered their plans to use oil revenues to diversify and burnish their reputations as safe havens for investors (Al Jazeera).

Existing regional fault lines look set to deepen, according to Al Jazeera. Tensions between Houthi rebels and Saudi Arabia in Yemen are expected to intensify, while the influence of rival powers India and China remains "stalled rather than stopped" — Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative having already entrenched itself across the Middle East and North Africa. A new defence pact between Türkiye, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed in Mecca is "likely to be the first of many" such pacts, the outlet reported, citing its own analysis (Al Jazeera).

Although the war's intensity has eased since a US-Iran memorandum of understanding was signed in June, there is no sign it will conclude, Al Jazeera reported, and the US military remains deeply entrenched in a region that is its most militarised in years. Hellyer said Israel is still pursuing its regional project of "paramountcy" despite failing to bring Iran to its knees, while Al Jazeera noted that "formal alliances with outside powers no longer guarantee safety" in the region (Al Jazeera).

**Sources:** aljazeera.com